Three major Canadian banks expressed optimistic views on the economy, in contrast to the concerns raised by numerous small businesses affected by the ongoing trade war with the United States. Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, and CIBC unveiled their financial results ahead of Thursday’s opening bell on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Collectively, these banking giants hold assets totaling up to $6 trillion on their balance sheets. With extensive portfolios of loans and a broad client base across Canada and the U.S., these institutions are well-positioned to assess the impact of tariffs.
RBC’s CEO Dave McKay highlighted the resilience of the Canadian economy, citing improvements in employment and GDP during the second quarter. He maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook for continued economic expansion, noting that the average effective tariff rate remains low at around six percent.
TD Bank’s CEO Raymond Chun mentioned an emerging “super cycle” of investment in Canada, driven by government spending in key sectors like infrastructure and national defense. He emphasized the abundance of investment opportunities and expressed confidence in benefiting from the upcoming wave of activity.
CIBC’s CEO Harry Culham expressed measured confidence in the latter part of 2026 and refrained from speculating on the evolving trade landscape. The bank’s chief risk officer, Frank Guse, emphasized the monitoring of Canada’s labor market for any signs of weakness.
A study conducted by Oxford Economics for the Canadian American Business Council suggested that over 100,000 Canadian jobs could be at risk if the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) was revoked. BMO Capital Markets forecasted a potential half a percentage point reduction in Canadian growth due to the latest U.S. tariffs, primarily impacting business confidence and investment.
National Bank’s CEO, Laurent Ferreira, commended Canada’s economic resilience and highlighted government initiatives to support workers and businesses affected by tariffs. He praised the country’s progress in energy and infrastructure projects, including the recent icebreaker contract announcement in Quebec. Additionally, he lauded the decision by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions to lower the domestic stability buffer, enabling banks to provide more support to struggling businesses.
Leaders from Bank of Montreal and Scotiabank separately indicated that the Canada-U.S. trade war was manageable. Despite the economic challenges, shares of Canada’s major banks on the Toronto Stock Exchange continue to trade near record highs, with the BMO Equal Weight Banks Index ETF surging nearly 50 percent over the past year.
