The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) attributes the decline in housing sales in January to the harsh winter conditions. According to the latest data, national housing sales dropped by 5.8% month-over-month.
Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist, explained that the sluggish January was particularly pronounced in parts of Ontario, which experienced severe winter weather. He noted that the impact on housing transactions was significant in central and southwestern Ontario, where a major storm hit in the third week of January, hindering mobility for many residents.
Real estate agent Joe Ferrante from the Hamilton area acknowledged that the cold and stormy weather likely deterred buyers from attending house showings last month. However, he highlighted that the reduced transactions were a continuation of the slow market trend from late 2025.
Despite the subdued January numbers, CREA remains optimistic about its 2026 forecast, indicating no immediate need for adjustments. Cathcart mentioned that unless faced with another significant snowstorm in densely populated areas, they anticipate improvement in the market conditions.
As of the end of January, Canada had approximately 4.9 months of housing inventory, aligning closely with the long-term average of five months. This inventory metric is used by CREA to assess market balance, with a lower ratio suggesting a sellers’ market and a higher ratio indicating a buyers’ market.
Cathcart noted that while some buyers may be waiting for lower interest rates, there is currently no indication of rate changes. The Bank of Canada lowered its key interest rate to 2.25% in October but has maintained it since then.
Looking ahead, CREA’s forecast for 2026 anticipates a modest 2.8% increase in the national average home price. Regionally, price declines were observed in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario, partially offset by gains in other provinces.
