This is an excerpt from The Buzzer, which is CBC Sports’ daily email newsletter. Stay informed about the latest in sports by subscribing here.
This weekend marks the beginning of one of the most significant events leading up to the Winter Olympics, as the Canadian curling trials kick off in Halifax.
A total of eight premier men’s and eight elite women’s teams from across Canada will vie for the opportunity to represent the nation in the four-player curling competitions scheduled for February in northern Italy. The mixed doubles team for Canada was determined last season, thanks to the married duo of Jocelyn Peterman and Brett Gallant, who secured their Olympic spot with a sixth-place finish at the world championships after winning their trials.
Both the men’s and women’s trials will commence on Saturday at the same venue, following an identical structure. The competition kicks off with a round-robin format, where every team plays against each other once. The team with the best overall record will move straight to the final, while the second- and third-ranked teams will compete in a semifinal next Thursday to determine who will challenge the top seed.
This year, a notable alteration has been made: the final will consist of a best-of-three series instead of a single match. Both finals are scheduled for next Friday and Saturday, with a potential rubber match on Sunday if necessary.
The team that emerges from this rigorous competition will have the responsibility of revitalizing Canada’s once-esteemed reputation in Olympic curling. Since Brad Jacobs and Jennifer Jones claimed gold medals in the men’s and women’s categories at the 2014 Games held in Russia, Canada has managed to win merely one medal in the four-player events — a bronze earned by Brad Gushue in 2022.
Moreover, half of Canada’s Olympic teams during this period failed to reach the playoffs, despite boasting significant talent. The skips who represented Canada in the 2018 and 2022 Olympics — Gushue, Jones, Rachel Homan, and Kevin Koe — collectively hold 21 national championships and eight world titles.
In contrast, Canada’s performance in the relatively new mixed doubles category has been inconsistent. Kaitlyn Lawes and John Morris clinched gold in the first Olympic tournament in 2018, but Morris and Homan fell short of the playoffs in 2022.
So, who will don the maple leaf in Italy this February? To help shed light on this question, we consulted our colleagues at Shoreview Sports Analytics to analyze the statistics and identify the teams most likely to secure their Olympic spots.
According to Mike Heenan from Shoreview, his team developed a statistical rating for each curling squad using the Bradley-Terry model, which gauges the strength of each team based on head-to-head comparisons — essentially determining who would prevail in one-on-one matchups. The model prioritizes the most recent results, gradually decreasing the importance of older games until they are no longer factored in after two years. Utilizing these ratings, Shoreview ran 10,000 simulations of the men’s and women’s trials to analyze the frequency of each team finishing in various positions.
Now, let’s delve into both competitions.
Women’s
Rachel Homan’s team has gone undefeated at the last two Scotties Tournament of Hearts and hasn’t lost to a Canadian opponent in over a year. (David Jackson/The Canadian Press)
You don’t need an elaborate statistical model to recognize that Rachel Homan is a strong favourite in this event.
The 36-year-old skip, alongside teammates Tracy Fleury, Emma Miskew, and Sarah Wilkes, has established themselves as dominant figures in women’s curling worldwide, having won consecutive world championships in 2024 and 2025. Last season, they achieved a winning percentage of over 90%, secured two Grand Slam titles, and reached the finals of the other three Grand Slam events. This season, they have triumphed in all three Grand Slam tournaments held thus far.
Domestically, Homan’s rink has been extraordinarily dominant — almost to an unbelievable extent. They remained undefeated in the previous two Scotties Tournament of Hearts and have not lost a single match to a Canadian competitor in over a year.
Nonetheless, it’s valuable to assess whether the statistics corroborate the general sentiment that Homan is likely to excel in this competition. They certainly do.
(Shoreview Sports Analytics )
Remarkably, Homan has a 91 percent probability of winning the trials, while none of her competitors — including four-time Scotties champion Kerri Einarson and Kaitlyn Lawes, the 2018 Olympic mixed doubles gold medallist — have even a 1-in-20 chance.
Mike also highlighted that the shift to a best-of-three final significantly reduces the likelihood of an upset. If the final had remained a single game, Homan would have been considered “only” an 82 percent favourite.
Therefore, a more intriguing question than “who will win the women’s trials?” could be “who will Homan defeat in the final?” Here’s what the statistics indicate:
(Shoreview Sports Analytics )
Once again, Homan’s dominance is evident. The top seven potential matchups in the finals all feature Homan, and no competitor has better than a seven percent chance of defeating her in a head-to-head final. The odds of forcing a decisive third game against her are also bleak.
If Homan secures victory in the trials, she will encounter tougher opponents at the Olympics. With Canada’s once-strong depth on the women’s side diminishing in recent years, Einarson stands as the only other Canadian skip currently in the top 10 of Ken Pomeroy’s global power ratings, ranking eighth.
The gold medal match in Italy appears to be poised as a showdown between Homan and Switzerland’s Silvana Tirinzoni, who claimed four consecutive world championships before Homan triumphed in the last two title matches. Homan has also bested Tirinzoni in all three Grand Slam finals this season.
However, both skips must demonstrate their ability to perform under the intense pressure of the Olympics. In 2018, Homan, the reigning world champion alongside Miskew and two other teammates, suffered a disappointing 4-5 record and failed to make the playoffs in South Korea. In 2022, Homan again did not advance after she and Morris ended with a 5-4 record in mixed doubles. Tirinzoni, too, went 4-5 in 2018, subsequently losing in the semifinals and the bronze medal match after achieving an 8-1 record in the round robin.
Men’s
Men’s favourite Brad Jacobs took a break from curling before returning to win the Brier and a bronze at the world championships last season. (Chris Young/The Canadian Press)
While the women’s trials may feel like a mere coronation for Homan, the men’s competition promises to be much more dynamic. With no clear frontrunner in the lineup, several skips have a legitimate hope of securing their ticket to Italy next weekend.
Here’s what the Shoreview model suggests:
(Shoreview Sports Analytics )
What a contrast, right? The “favourite” here has only about a 1-in-3 chance of winning, with another competitor closely trailing, and a third having a respectable 1-in-5 chance. The skip sitting fourth in odds has a 7.4 percent chance — not stellar, but certainly better than the fourth-ranked woman, who is under 1 percent.
Most would likely agree that Brad Jacobs is a slight favourite. The 40-year-old reigning Brier champion is an Olympic gold medallist from 2014 and came close to returning eight years later, losing to Gushue in the most recent Canadian trials final. Jacobs took a short break from curling before teaming up with Marc Kennedy, Brett Gallant, and Ben Hebert in the spring of 2024. The experienced lineup had a strong inaugural season together, winning the Brier and earning a bronze at the world championships following a semifinal loss to the eventual champion, Bruce Mouat of Scotland.
Those unfamiliar with curling might be surprised to see Matt Dunstone listed as a co-favourite alongside Jacobs. The 30-year-old has yet to win a Brier, and his sole appearance in the Canadian trials as a skip resulted in a 3-5 record four years ago. However, Dunstone has consistently competed at the Brier, reaching the semifinals in four of the last five years and making it to the finals twice — including last season, where he narrowly lost to Jacobs in a 5-3 match due to a triple scored by Jacobs with the final rock. Interestingly, brothers Ryan and E.J. Harnden, who play on Dunstone’s team, secured Olympic gold with Jacobs in 2014.
Dunstone’s rink, which also features third Colton Lott, has excelled on the Grand Slam tour this season, winning one title and reaching the finals in the other two events. They initially defeated Scotland’s Ross Whyte before subsequently losing to Mouat, the reigning world champion, in the next two competitions.
Mouat continues to lead Pomeroy’s global men’s power ratings, with Dunstone and Jacobs tied for second place and John Epping close behind.
Epping, given a 1-in-5 chance of winning the trials by the Shoreview model, has an impressive 31-11 record this season but is only 6-8 against top 10 opponents in Pomeroy’s rankings and has yet to compete in a Brier title match. Nevertheless, he performed well at last season’s Canadian championship by teaming up with young brothers Jacob and Tanner Horgan. They achieved a 6-2 record but fell short of the playoffs after losing a tiebreaker.
Another surprising aspect of the Shoreview projections is Brad Gushue’s odds of winning being below two percent. Just 18 months ago, Gushue celebrated his third consecutive Brier title, bringing his career total to a record six. However, he has not secured a tournament victory since then, as his choice to replace E.J. Harnden with former skip Brendan Bottcher at second has not yielded positive results. Gushue’s team stands at a mere 2-9 against top-10 competitors this season, and the 45-year-old skip announced in September his intention to retire after this season.
Here’s a look at the most likely matchups for the men’s final, along with each skip’s odds of winning:
(Shoreview Sports Analytics )
As illustrated once more, there is a broad spectrum of potential outcomes for the men’s tournament. With approximately a 50/50 chance of the final extending to three games, viewers can expect a thrilling conclusion.
