An inquiry into the potential manipulation of temperature sensors at Paris airport to influence online betting outcomes has drawn attention to the surging trend of climate-related bets. Several accounts on Polymarket, an online betting site, reaped substantial winnings following a sudden 5-degree Celsius temperature spike earlier this month. This incident has sparked discussions on the ethical implications of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, where users can place bets on climate-related events, ranging from hurricane strength predictions to the hottest year on record in 2026.
Experts interviewed by CBC News suggest that weather betting could have a positive impact on climate science by potentially altering the perceptions of climate change skeptics. Moran Cerf, a neuroscience and business professor at Columbia University, conducted a research study that involved participants betting on various climate events like the California wildfires. The study revealed that individuals engaging in these markets showed increased awareness and concern about climate change, with even some skeptics possibly changing their views.
Climate change poses challenges in convincing individuals, with varying degrees of skepticism, about the human contribution to global warming. Despite the rising occurrences of climate-related disasters, a significant portion of the population remains skeptical. A survey by the Angus Reid Institute in January 2025 found that nearly a quarter of Canadians do not believe humans are primarily responsible for climate change, while nine percent doubt its existence altogether.
Cerf emphasized that climate change impacts, such as rising sea levels and disruptions to food systems, often unfold over extended periods, making them challenging for individuals to grasp. Prediction markets offer a solution by providing immediate feedback on events, allowing users to observe real-time probability shifts and experience short-term outcomes through payouts.
Prediction markets differ from traditional gambling setups by enabling users to trade shares in binary options directly. Mark Roulston, a climate scientist at the University of Lancaster, runs an academic project that mimics platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi but without participants risking their own funds. Research teams can submit predictions on significant climate events, and the aggregated expert bets aim to enhance predictive accuracy and incentivize further model development.
The use of prediction markets extends beyond academia, as insurance companies can leverage these platforms for risk calculation, and scientists can secure research funding based on market outcomes. Roulston envisions prediction markets as a novel approach to aggregate expertise swiftly, especially in forecasting scenarios, which could otherwise take years through traditional research channels.
In Canada, short-term binary options, including day-to-day temperature bets, are prohibited, but Wealthsimple recently gained approval to operate specific prediction markets. The company can offer contracts on economic and climate trends, excluding sports and election-related bets. Despite the potential benefits, concerns persist among researchers like Cerf regarding the effectiveness of short-term bets in fostering climate change awareness and the susceptibility of platforms to data manipulation issues.
